Using the Sleuth Urban Growth Model to Simulate the Impacts of Future Policy Scenarios on Urban Land Use in the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria CMSA

We used the SLEUTH urban growth model, closely coupled with a land transition model, to simulate future urban growth in the Houston metropolitan area, one of the fastest growing metropolises in the United States during the past three decades. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Three specific scenarios are designed to simulate the spatial pattern of urban growth under different environmental conditions. Then first scenario depicts an unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, such as forest, agriculture and wetland. The second scenario assumes a managed growth with moderate protection. The last scenario simulates a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas and wetland. The third scenario demonstrates the most conserved natural land with the least urban development. This scenario should be the most desirable for the future urban growth of Houston.